Rating candidates for the 2006 Kentucky Derby:
- Brother Derek: Professional, consistent . . . and kind of uninspiring. Still, his California races make him the logical choice for now. A knockout win in the Santa Anita Derby would get me more enthusiastic, but don’t be shocked if his status declines before Derby Day.
- Lawyer Ron: Isn’t he tired yet? The Lawyer has been walking into court regularly since last fall. Of course, he’s been winning, too, and along the way he has learned to rate. But he didn’t run all that fast in the Rebel and hasn’t faced the very best competition.
- Barbaro: A smashing (that favored turf-writer adjective, courtesy, I think, of Joe Hirsch) victory in Saturday’s Florida Derby would put him right there with the top two. I think that’s a likely scenario, but he needs to prove he can win on something besides grass or slop. Some fret because he won’t race between the Florida and Kentucky derbies, but trainer Michael Matz generally knows what he’s doing.
- Discreet Cat: This Dubai-owned colt might give the sheik his long-sought Kentucky Derby victory despite unconventional training methods. His race on the home sand last weekend was a stunner, and don’t forget he was a real head-turner in his brief appearance at Saratoga last summer. Barn has been downplaying this colt, but that’s understandable given previous disappointments.
- Sweetnorthernsaint: That looked like a very good third in the Gotham. He just kept coming at the end with no apparent strain after a wide trip -– and in very good time. His Beyers in two obscure races before that were off the charts. Besides, I have to like him: I have a future bet on him at 30-1.
- Keyed Entry: He can’t be far behind No. 5 here, since he finished slightly ahead of him in the Gotham. I’m looking at that as a key race (though that’s bucking history, and I don’t expect much more from the winner). Keyed Entry, who rated nicely in the Gotham, ran fast in Florida, too, and he has the Pletcher magic.
- A.P. Warrior: San Felipe win suggests return to last year’s solid form. The move to Shirreffs’ barn had to help. If he beats Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Derby, then look out.
Bluegrass Cat: Has been a slight disappointment after stellar 2-year-old season. But his back class and slight excuse in Tampa Bay Derby (lost a shoe) keep him a serious contender. He might like getting away from Tampa, too.
- Sacred Light: Closed well against Brother Derek in the Santa Catalina. A good effort in the Santa Anita Derby would get him noticed.
- First Samurai: Two-year-old sensation still has not shown a liking for distance. But it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he moved back toward the top of the list in the Bluegrass Stakes.
- Point Determined: Strange race in the San Felipe. After some stops and starts, he did close briskly to run second, but just when he looked like he would go right on by he hit another wall. Could be a good one but need to see more. Racketeer, who finished slightly behind this one in the San Felipe, might have a better upside.
Other contenders: Racketeer, Strong Contender, Bob and John, Deputy Glitters, Flashy Bull, Steppenwolfer, High Cotton, Private Vow
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